Prediction markets are gambling platforms. They have grown fast enough to overtake traditional betting operators, and they allow bets on almost anything.

While closely tied to the legalisation of sports betting, they extend to wagers on weather, on politics and on war. Those who bet — “trade” — in these markets profit from deaths and destruction.

Not a friendly wager

Beyond the social and financial risk, there is growing evidence of fraud, manipulation, intimidation and criminality connected to prediction markets.

The operators — Polymarket and Kalshi among the largest — take no risk themselves. They charge fees for people to bet against each other.

Why the response will be slow

This needs urgent attention as a community, a country and a society. Prediction markets are a potential danger to our social fabric and to our sovereignty. But most legislators and regulators:

  • do not understand them;
  • could readily be lobbied into enabling them — in the United States, members of the President’s family have reportedly taken positions in these platforms, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to accommodate them;
  • are reactive to industries of this kind rather than anticipatory.

Act now, not after the crisis

We as citizens and community leaders need to press for strict control and regulation, and to drive youth education now.

There is already sufficient evidence of online betting among school learners. Universities are planning “gambling literacy” courses to address student gambling and addiction — which tells you where this has already reached.

The public can start by insisting that politicians and parties legislate controls on gambling advertising that mirror those on tobacco: no billboards, no television advertising, no sports sponsorship.

If gambling is affecting you or someone close to you, SADAG can be reached on 0800 567 567 and the National Responsible Gambling Programme counselling line on 0800 006 008.

Related

South Africa Has a Gambling Crisis · Why Taxing Gambling Is Not the Solution · How Civil Society in Durban Is Tackling Online Gambling

Shared by the South African Muslim Network (SAMNET) in the interest of addressing the national gambling crisis.