Category: Letters and Statements

  • Matriculants of 2020

     

    To every single matric student that survived the year 2020

    A pandemic hit, a deadly virus stood in your way but you made it.

    To all those who suffered severely, lost loved/dear ones and were put under immense stress, our heart goes out to you!

    To all those who achieved distinctions, congratulations! 👏🏼

    To those who passed, congratulations 👏🏼

    To those that did not do well, never lose hope or let this bring you down. Life is full of ups and downs and everything happens for a reason 💪🏼

    We are proud of all efforts! And pray for your successful future 🤲🏽

  • Covid-19 New Wave?

    The following question was received. Due to a high interest on this to, we have decided to share our response with the public. Please find information provided below.

    QUESTION:

    I just read about a new wave expected to hit in May/June in Cape Town, perhaps someone could shed some light on something that we are curious about. How do they predict and calculate these waves of the pandemic hitting in advance?

    RESPONSE:

    There is a whole part of Medical Science called Epidemiology, which studies the spread of disease or its prevalence.

    Definition: “The branch of medicine which deals with the incidence, distribution, and possible control of diseases and other factors relating to health”.

    Epidemiologists are people who specialise in this today but it has roots going back to the Islamic Golden Age, when many of these sciences where formalized!  (Al Razhi aka Rhazes, Ibn-Sina aka Avecinna, etc)

    Like many others, they are a profession that previously few noticed or cared about, but quietly did a very important but “unexciting” job. Epidemiology uses previous experience, statistical information as well as knowledge concerning how a disease works and differences in human behaviours, to project “what is likely to happen going forward”.

    The “smarter” the people, and the more information we know about the disease… the more accurate our projections become. (In addition, SA has many globally recognized experts).

    Early Projections

    With COVID19 and during the first lock down/wave there was very little information about the disease, as it was completely new. Many things were educated assumptions or ideas. We were fortunate that our lockdown happened when it did as the extra few weeks and months meant there was more info when we did get our first wave.

    After the June-Aug peak there was far better information around how COVID19 spreads among communities (human behaviour) and how the virus itself compares to other infectious organisms (the disease profile).

    Why are scientists predicting a wave in May/June in South Africa?

    There are many reasons and the experts’ use many more factors but the most obvious are time, disease and behaviour.

    Time

    Looking at the gap between the first wave and the second wave it took around four to five months from June – August to November – January. Assuming that we are able to control the virus and human behaviour will follow the same pattern we should expect another cycle in between four to six months (May/July).

    The post-1st wave projections may not have accounted for the SA mutation of the virus, which seemed to have happened/taken hold in the Cape Region. This meant that the expected Jan-Mar wave happened earlier.

    People

    Looking at how people move in their community, and the country and the high probability of movements during the April holidays, the return to universities, work etc. It is reasonable to expect it could take about another four to six months from the previous peak in January to the next Wave.

    Sooner or Later?

    Many things can change this:

    • Human Behaviour – If people do not behave the way that they are expected to and are more careful it could push out the wave until later or reduce its severity when it does happen BUT if people are not so careful, it may happen sooner!
    • Mutation – if the virus mutates again it could be more virulent OR less virulent. (Make you more or less sick)
      This could mean the wave could come earlier or later, OR it is bigger or smaller a wave!
    • Treatments – with the first wave and especially in places like Italy, the protocols for treatment were still being developed, and had limited knowledge of the disease.
    • Subsequently, better treatment has meant that despite the peak, the effect was actually much better then we could have experienced if we had not locked down and delayed the spread.
    • Important: The Vaccine effects will take a Long Time – even if we started a vaccination, program today and somehow rolled out to, e.g. A million people in the next 10 weeks (100,000 per week), It is unlikely that we would be able to prevent another wave.

    However, there will be a huge benefit with any vaccinations (especially for those who are at highest risk) as it will reduce the likelihood of them spreading the disease and ensure that we have more people, especially Healthcare workers able to treat those who do get sick.

    Why Cape Town? (It is not the mountain 🙂 )

    That is where the first and second waves started. However, there is also data showing that Western Cape is more accurate in its COVID19 reporting than other provinces (e.g. MRC Excess Deaths Research). It may start elsewhere or simultaneously in other provinces. This is also why testing and isolation is important, even in mild/asymptomatic cases.

    The Numbers Don’t Lie

    Epidemiology is not very different from using science to predict changes in the economy, politics, growth rates, technology, weather etc. and is never an exact science… HOWEVER, the more variables you use, and the more accurate data becomes, the more likely the predictions are correct.

    Can a New Wave be prevented?

    The biggest unknown is HUMAN BEHAVIOUR!

    Probably not “prevented” but if ALL of us respond better, do what the Scientific Experts, Specialists and Doctors advise and be more vigilant, we could Delay or Lessen the Peak. If we can delay it until we get enough people vaccinated, maybe we could (and I hope) even avoid a third wave!

    Most importantly, our Safe Behaviours will SAVE more lives!

    Regards

    Mr M. Kharwa
    Pharmacist

  • UNACCEPTABLE ACCEPTANCE OF AWARD – GARY PLAYER

    #GIVEITBACKBLACKKNIGHT

    The South African Muslim Network has sent the following letter to Mr Gary Player asking him to return the US Presidential Medal of Freedom awarded to him by Donald Trump.

    We would like to ask that your organization consider the same. We believe that it is not acceptable for any South African to receive or keep a Freedom Medal from the current US President. Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated racist, prejudicial and bigoted behaviour. He has derided individuals, communities, refugees and countries. He has spread lies and hatred, and condoned terrorist actions.

    We find that Mr Gary Player accepting this award, especially in light of events in Washington this week must be encouraged to return it and be given an opportunity to do so. Please feel free to encourage other organisations, individuals and leaders to support this call. Please find below our open letter to Mr Player.

    Kind regards
    Dr F. Suliman
    Chairperson

    08 January 2021

    ATT: GARY PLAYER

    Dear Black Knight

    RE: MEDAL OF FREEDOM

    It has come to our attention that you received the US Presidential Medal of Freedom from Donald Trump for your contribution to golf.

    A SOUTH AFRICAN FIRST

    As a South African, and despite the many who are critical of your stand on sport as a young man during Apartheid, we respect you as a Sportsman and fellow Countryman. We respect that over time you came to see the wrongs of Apartheid and for what you did for your country and its citizens.
    We respect that the late President Nelson Mandela honoured you as a symbol of South African excellence, unity, and change.

    SOME AWARDS ARE NOT WORTH ACCEPTING

    We implore you to reconsider your acceptance of this award. Sadly, we cannot congratulate on what should be a proud moment. Considering the events of the last few days, the many actions, tweets and utterances of the person giving you the award over many years, we would like to highlight that accepting an award from Donald Trump, especially at this time, is not in keeping with the values and beliefs of being a South African. As someone who spoke highly of President Mandela, and who met him many times, we ask you to consider if President Mandela would have approved. As South Africans, we would like to join the calls for you to return the award.

    It is not just about a medal. Who gives an award and when it is given, how it is given and where it is given is important!

    HISTORY AND SYMBOLISM MUST TEACH US

    You were witness to institutional racism, on a rainy evening outside a beautiful old building in Durban, given by people who refused to respect another human, who won fair and with humility, based only on his race. To accept an award from a bigot, racist and liar, who undermines the democratic processes of his own country is wrong! To accept an award within days of him manipulating and encouraging a violent racist mob to an illegal act of terrorism upon his own people democratically elected officials is wrong! To accept an award, at the White House in a private ceremony, within a short distance of the US Capitol Buildings, this week is wrong!

    RETURN THE AWARD

    As South Africa’s we urge you to return THIS award, from THIS US President, at THIS time.
    Mr Player, you do not need to prove anything to anyone. This award gives you nothing, but keeping it takes away too much from too many who have sacrificed for the respect of fellow humans, and for those who gave their lives for freedom of our country and many others around Africa and the world. You may have made a choice to accept this award under different circumstances, and maybe from another president at another time we could be proud of a son of Africa, but we fear keeping it will tarnish your legacy and the great memories your countrymen and women have of you.

    #GiveItBackBlackKnight

    Kind Regards
    The SAMNET Board of Directors